News | Coronavirus (COVID-19) | April 01, 2020

Two Studies Use SIRD Model to Forecast COVID-19 Spread

New studies use SIRD model to forecast COVID-19 spread; examine patient CT scans to correlate clinical features with mortality

#COVID19 #Coronavirus #2019nCoV #Wuhanvirus #SARScov2 New studies use SIRD model to forecast COVID-19 spread; examine patient CT scans to correlate clinical features with mortality

Fig 1. A sample scoring on CT images of a 63-year-old woman from mortality group demonstrated a total score of 63. It was calculated as: for upper zone (A), 3 (consolidation) × 3 (50–75% distribution) × 2 (both right and left lungs) + 2 (ground glass opacity) ×1 (< 25% distribution) × 2 (both right and left lungs); for middle zone (B), 3 (consolidation) × 2 (25–50% distribution) × 2 (both right and left lungs) + 2 (ground glass opacity) × 2 (25–50% distribution) × 2 (both right and left lungs); for lower zone (C), 3 (consolidation) × (2 (25–50% distribution of the right lung) + 3 (50–75% distribution of the left lung)) + 2 (ground glass opacity) × (2 (25–50% distribution of the right lung) + 1 (< 25% distribution of the left lung)) Yuan et al, 2020 (CC BY 4.0)

April 1, 2020 — A new study, Data-based analysis, modelling and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak, published March 31, 2020, was conducted by Constantinos Siettos from the Universita degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Italy and colleagues. The authors used a  Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) model calibrated with the reported data between Jan. 11 and Feb. 10, 2020, and forecasted the evolution of the outbreak in the epicenter of the outbreak, Hubei, China  up until Feb. 29. With these parameters, they forecasted that at least 45,000 would be infected and 2,700 would die by February 29 – in fact, in Hubei, around 67,000 are known to have become infected, while the death toll was around 2800 in this time period. 

The authors also used the SIRD model to estimate COVID-19’s R0 value, an estimate of contagiousness which reflects the average number of people who may catch an infection from one contagious person. Across various scenarios, their estimate of R0 based on the available data was around 2.5. Assuming a high degree of underreporting of mild cases of COVID-19 in their data, they estimated a mortality rate in the total population of around 0.15 percent for the virus. Furthermore, based on a scenario assuming an order of 20-fold scaling of the number of infected in the total population, their study predicted a decline of the outbreak at the end of February in Hubei. Indeed, during the last days the number of new infected cases has dropped significantly.

Siettos noted: “This is the first study based on a mathematical modeling approach that has provided relatively accurate three- week-ahead forecasts. Importantly, to the best of our knowledge this is the first study based on a mathematical modelling approach suggesting that the actual number of the infections in the total population is of the order of twenty times more than those reported, and that the mortality rate in the total population is about ~0.15 percent i.e. significantly less than reported 2-3 percent.Our findings imply that for the case of Hubei (with a 60m population), around 2-3 percent of the total population in Hubei has been actually infected by coronavirus.” 

You can read the complete study here

Using CT Scans to Predict Eventual Outcomes

A second study, Association of radiologic findings with mortality of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, also published March 31, was conducted by Mingli Yuan and colleagues from the Central Hospital of Wuhan, Hubei province, China. The researchers studied 27 patients infected with COVID-19 and admitted to the Central Hospital of Wuhan.

In this patient group, the authors associated clinical features identified from computed tomography (CT) scans of patients’ lungs with eventual outcomes. They scored patients based on features they observed such as ground glass opacity, abnormality on both sides, and widespread distribution of pathology in the lungs, to produce an overall severity score for each patient.

Of the 27 patients, who were mostly older adults (median age 60), 17 (63 percent) recovered and were discharged from hospital, while 10 (37 percent) died of the virus. Patients with underlying health conditions including hypertension, diabetes and cardiac disease were more likely to die of the virus than patients without such comorbidities, and older patients were also more likely to die, though there was no difference between genders. Patients with a higher (more severe) score at CT scan were much more likely to die of COVID-19 – the average score of patients who died was 30, compared to 12 in patients who recovered.

Yuan added: “This study allows us to compare radiologic findings with the mortality of patients infected with COVID-19.”

You can read the complete study here.

Related Coronavirus Content:

Radiology Publishes First Case of COVID-19 Encephalopathy

VIDEO: Use of Telemedicine in Medical Imaging During COVID-19

VIDEO: How China Leveraged Health IT to Combat COVID-19

 CDRH Issues Letter to Industry on COVID-19

Qure.ai Launches Solutions to Help Tackle COVID19 

ASRT Deploys COVID-19 Resources for Educational Programs

Study Looks at CT Findings of COVID-19 Through Recovery

VIDEO: Imaging COVID-19 With Point-of-Care Ultrasound (POCUS)

The Cardiac Implications of Novel Coronavirus

CT Provides Best Diagnosis for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Radiology Lessons for Coronavirus From the SARS and MERS Epidemics

Deployment of Health IT in China’s Fight Against the COVID-19 Epidemic

Emerging Technologies Proving Value in Chinese Coronavirus Fight

Radiologists Describe Coronavirus CT Imaging Features

Coronavirus Update from the FDA

CT Imaging of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Pneumonia

CT Imaging Features of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Chest CT Findings of Patients Infected With Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Pneumonia 

Find more related clinical content Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Related Content

AI-powered premium large bore CT scanner offers industry’s largest bore and widest field-of-view
News | Computed Tomography (CT) | October 24, 2020
October 24, 2020 — An estimated 1.8 million new cancer cases will be diagnosed in the U.S.
An example of a HeartFlow FFR-CT image showing the blood flow through what looked like a significant blockage on CT angiography alone, actually was not flow-limiting based on computational fluid dynamics. Use of the technology was supposed to reduce the number of diagnostic catheterizations in the FORECAST trial, but the costs of FFR-CT were not offset enough to show cost savings.

An example of a HeartFlow FFR-CT image showing the blood flow through what looked like a significant blockage on CT angiography alone, actually was not flow-limiting based on computational fluid dynamics. Use of the technology was supposed to reduce the number of diagnostic catheterizations in the FORECAST trial, but the costs of FFR-CT were not offset enough to show cost savings.

Feature | CT Angiography (CTA) | October 23, 2020
October 22, 2020 – In the FORECAST randomized clinical trial, the use of ...
This illustration show the complexity of the data obtained from one single patient with moderate/severe traumatic brain injury. Different imaging approaches and techniques have their own unique sensitivity in assessing different aspects of neuroanatomy and neuropathology. What can be seen on images also changes with time since injury. Data from comprehensive clinical and functional assessments using a range of other tools is also important for evaluating patient outcome. Through data harmonization and large

This illustration show the complexity of the data obtained from one single patient with moderate/severe traumatic brain injury. Different imaging approaches and techniques have their own unique sensitivity in assessing different aspects of neuroanatomy and neuropathology. What can be seen on images also changes with time since injury. Data from comprehensive clinical and functional assessments using a range of other tools is also important for evaluating patient outcome. Through data harmonization and large-scale analyses of data combined across multiple research sites, the ENIGMA Brain Injury will develop and test methods and procedures for making sense of the complexity in this data. Images courtesy of Olsen et al., Brain Imaging and Behavior, 2020

News | Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) | October 23, 2020
October 23, 2020 — Trau...
A, Initial conventional axial CT image shows no noticeable lung damage (within red box) in right upper lobe. B, Electron density spectral CT image obtained at same time as image in A shows lesions (within red box) in right upper lobe. C, Follow-up conventional axial chest CT image obtained 5 days after images in A and B confirm presence of lesions (within red box) in right upper lobe.

A, Initial conventional axial CT image shows no noticeable lung damage (within red box) in right upper lobe. B, Electron density spectral CT image obtained at same time as image in A shows lesions (within red box) in right upper lobe. C, Follow-up conventional axial chest CT image obtained 5 days after images in A and B confirm presence of lesions (within red box) in right upper lobe. Image courtesy of the American Roentgen Ray Society (ARRS), American Journal of Roentgenology (AJR)

News | Coronavirus (COVID-19) | October 22, 2020
October 22, 2020 — According to an open-...
The fMRI hyperscanning environment.

(A) The fMRI hyperscanning environment. The clinician (1) and patient (2) were positioned in two different 3T MRI scanners. An audio-video link enabled online communication between the two scanners (3), and video images were used to extract frame-by-frame facial expression metrics. During simultaneous acquisition of blood oxygen level–dependent (BOLD)–fMRI data, the clinician used a button box (4) to apply electroacupuncture (EA) treatment (real/sham, double-blind) to the patient (5) to alleviate evoked pressure pain to the leg (6; Hokanson cuff inflation). Pain and affect related to the treatment were rated after each trial. (B) Study overview. After an initial behavioral visit, each individual participated in a Clinical-Interaction (hyperscan preceded by a clinical intake) and No-Interaction condition (hyperscan without a preceding intake), in a counterbalanced order, with two different partners. (C) Experimental protocol. Each hyperscan was composed of 12 repeated trials (four verum EA, four sham EA, and four no treatment) in a pseudo-randomized order. After a resting period (far left), both participants were shown a visual cue to indicate whether the next pain stimulus would be treated (green frame) or not treated (red frame) by the clinician. These cues prompted clinicians prepare to either apply or not apply treatment while evoking corresponding anticipation for the patient. Following the anticipation cue, moderately painful pressure pain was applied to the patient’s left leg, while the clinician applied or did not apply treatment, respectively. After another resting period, participants rated pain (patients), vicarious pain (clinicians), and affect (both) using a visual analog scale (VAS).

News | Clinical Trials | October 22, 2020
October 22, 2020 — The potential impact of the patient-clinician relationship on a patient's response to treatment is
Lesion was originally reported as indeterminate enhancing mass, and outside report recommended biopsy. Classic features of benign hemangioma are shown. Error was attributed to faulty reasoning. A, Axial MR image obtained 5 minutes after contrast agent administration shows peripheral nodular discontinuous enhancement. B, Axial MR image obtained 10 minutes after contrast agent administration shows centripetal progression of enhancement (arrow). C, Axial fast imaging employing steady-state acquisition (FIESTA)

Lesion was originally reported as indeterminate enhancing mass, and outside report recommended biopsy. Classic features of benign hemangioma are shown. Error was attributed to faulty reasoning. A, Axial MR image obtained 5 minutes after contrast agent administration shows peripheral nodular discontinuous enhancement. B, Axial MR image obtained 10 minutes after contrast agent administration shows centripetal progression of enhancement (arrow). C, Axial fast imaging employing steady-state acquisition (FIESTA) MR image shows lesion is homogeneously hyperintense compared with liver parenchyma. Image courtesy of American Roentgen Ray Society (ARRS), American Journal of Roentgenology (AJR)

News | Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) | October 21, 2020
October 21, 2020 — According to an artic...
According to an inquest, a man with a heart disorder and chest pain died two days after a doctor viewed the wrong scan and sent him home
News | Computed Tomography (CT) | October 21, 2020
October 21, 2020 — The BBC News
Flowchart of patient inclusion and exclusion.

Figure 1. Flowchart of patient inclusion and exclusion.

News | Coronavirus (COVID-19) | October 20, 2020
October 20, 2020 — A new multi-institutional study published in the journal ...
Rensselaer, First-Imaging, and GE Global researchers develop a deep neural network to perform nearly as well as more complex dual-energy CT imaging technology
News | Computed Tomography (CT) | October 20, 2020
October 20, 2020 — Bioimaging technologies are the eyes that allow doctors to see inside the body in order to diagnos