News | Proton Therapy | January 02, 2018

MEDraysintell Downgrades Proton Therapy Market Projection for 2030

Number of treatment rooms expected by 2030 drops from 1,200 to 900, accounting for financial, regulatory considerations

MEDraysintell Downgrades Proton Therapy Market Projection for 2030

January 2, 2018 — MEDraysintell recently downgraded its projection for proton therapy rooms expected to be operational in 2030 from 1,200 to 900. The company said this still represents a 12 percent annual growth from 2017 to 2030, and the need to open an average of more than 50 proton therapy treatment rooms every year from 2018 to 2030.

Originally MEDraysintell expected 2015 to become the starting point of a dynamic increase of the PT market following the large number of new orders reported worldwide during that year. This trend continued in early 2016 but slowed down from mid-2016 on with a persistent decline during 2017. The drop of new orders reached almost 70 percent compared to 2015. For the first 11 months of 2017, proton therapy orders remained below the average number of orders recorded annually between 2006 and 2017. The highest level of orders was observed in 2015 with almost 50 treatment rooms ordered accounting for nearly $1 billion. The lowest level was seen in 2008 with only five treatment rooms ordered. MEDraysintell said the trend in 2017 could have improved somewhat if new proton therapy orders were recorded before end of the year. However at this stage, it seems that 2015 appears to be an exceptional year and not the new norm expected by the industry.

Factors such as financial difficulties shown at several proton therapy centers in the recent past have also affected the climate of the industry and have probably pushed certain potential investors to reconsider their priorities. In addition, apparent difficulties for a number of operational PT centers worldwide to recruit annually a sufficient number of patients are possibly also affecting the decision for building new PT centers, according to MEDraysintell. Furthermore, the U.S. healthcare reforms are impacting new orders for large healthcare equipment, and the Chinese newly adopted five-year plan resulted in delays for new orders from potentials customers.

In the last two years, particle therapy market sizes have been revised downward compared to the ones shown in the previous edition of the proton therapy report, mainly due to delays in the opening of several facilities and cancellation of some projects. In 2016 only 0.6 percent of the population that needed access to external radiotherapy was treated with proton therapy. Even with 900 treatment rooms in 2030, this will allow only 6-7 percent of this population to be able to receive proton therapy treatment.

However, with the growing clinical evidence regarding the efficacy of particle therapy that will progressively be used to treat a broader number of indications, there is room for a further acceleration of the market especially if the industry brings the cost of equipment down, according to the report.

MEDraysintell is delaying the release of the fifth edition of its Proton Therapy World Market Report and Directory to mid-January 2018, when all the latest information will be collected for the last month of 2017. The new edition will provide a comprehensive review of the world market dynamics, with an analysis of both past evolutions and future trends to the year 2030, including a detailed profile of all promoters, manufacturers or developers of proton and carbon therapy equipment.

For more information: www.medraysintell.com

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