A recently-released study from the Harvey L. Neiman Health Policy Institute (HPI) and American College of Radiology (ACR) Data Science Institute (DSI) projects that new U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved artificial intelligence (AI) medical imaging products will increase five-fold by 2035.
October 26, 2023 — A recently-released study from the Harvey L. Neiman Health Policy Institute (HPI) and American College of Radiology (ACR) Data Science Institute (DSI) projects that new U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved artificial intelligence (AI) medical imaging products will increase five-fold by 2035.
The research, “Projected Growth in FDA-Approved Artificial Intelligence Products Given Venture Capital Funding,” was published October 16 in the Journal of the American College of Radiology (JACR), projected the number of new FDA-approved products using the historical relationship between the number of new products and past AI venture capital funding.
Using DSI and venture capital funding data from Rock Health’s Digital Funding Reports, the study found that annual AI funding grew from $2 billion in 2013 to $13 billion in 2022. It currently takes about six years from funding to FDA approval, and the study projects there will be 147 new AI products in 2028, based on the $13 billion in funding in 2022.
“As radiologists’ workload continues to increase, AI will be a crucial tool to manage this growth over the next few decades,” said Keith Dreyer, DO, PhD, FACR, ACR, DSI Chief Science Officer, and Chief Data Science Officer at Massachusetts General Hospital and Brigham and Women’s Hospital.
Assuming that future funding follows the same linear trend it has previously, the study projects funding will be $30.8 billion in 2029, which would lead to FDA-approved products in 2035.
“Given the relationship between funding and new AI products, we project there will be 350 new AI products in 2035 corresponding to the 2029 funding level given the lag between funding and approved products. This is a five-fold increase from 69 in 2022,” said Eric Christensen, PhD, Research Director at the Neiman Health Policy Institute.
“Artificial intelligence has grown rapidly and is already changing the way healthcare professionals work,” said Christopher Treml, DSI director of operations. “Based on this research, we expect that growth to continue accelerating over the next decade and change the field in new and exciting ways as AI products are developed and integrated into practice.”
Along with Dreyer, co-authors included the following: Nicole K. McNabb, BS; Eric W. Christensen, PhD; Elizabeth Y. Rula, PhD; Laura Coombs, PhD; Christoph Wald, MD; and Christopher Treml, MS.
The Harvey L. Neiman Health Policy Institute is one of the nation’s leading medical imaging socioeconomic research organizations. It was established by the American College of Radiology (ACR) in August 2012 to provide credible, objective, and reproducible research to the national health policy debate. In so doing, The Neiman Institute studies the role and value of radiology and radiologists in evolving health care delivery and payment systems and the impact of medical imaging on the cost, quality, safety and efficiency of health care. Further, it provides objective assessment of the value of radiology and its role in the healthcare continuum and builds awareness of this research to maximize the influence on decision making.
Harvey Neiman, MD, was an outstanding physician, effective leader and respected medical scholar who dedicated his professional career to improving patient care. He was one of the leading minds in medicine regarding radiology and medical imaging policy and economics.
The ACR Data Science Institute (DSI) was established in 2017 to empower the advancement, validation, and implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) in medical imaging for the benefit of patients, society, and the radiological professions. The DSI collaborates with radiology subspecialty societies, industry, and governmental regulatory agencies on developing, evaluating, validating, and monitoring AI algorithms.
DSI works to facilitate the development and implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) applications that will help radiology professionals provide improved medical care.